Whenever I go to my grandparents' house for dinner, my grandfather seriously reminds me that there is a real probability that I may be drafted for some war in central Asia. At first, I thought that he was a little out of touch with reality, but as events of the summer played out I have become less skeptical and a little more fearful that he may be right. With Vice President Dick Cheney back in hiding and the country on orange alert for a potential reprisal of last years attacks, my thoughts inevitably drift to the Middle East, specifically Iraq, where the US has maintained a palpable military presence for over ten years.

I am convinced that any declaration of war on Iraq is an extremely stupid idea, that is being supported out of political convenience rather than any clearly definable national interest. I am glad that Bush and his advisors have realized that they cannot unilaterally declare war under our constitution and will not attempt to do so without congressional backing, but even if our government decides in favor of wasting money, time and perhaps lives as well, there remain some problematic and interesting issues associated with the a war on Iraq.

There is no powerful rationale for going to war with Iraq. Our standoff with Saddam Hussein has not substantively changed in ten years. Although many hawks will cite evidence of Iraq endeavoring to obtain the materiel necessary for manufacturing nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, this rusty argument is at best poorly polished. Yes, there was a broad attempt by Iraqi agents to purchase components to centrifuges that could be used in distilling nuclear material, but if we accept that Iraq's motive is to obtain these weapons of mass destruction, how is this action any different from others that it has taken over the past ten years? It isn't different at all, which then forces us to wonder what has actually changed to warrant a full-scale war. The result of my musings is that nothing has changed and that war isn't warranted.

Going to war with Iraq will help Bush's election chances. Bush needs to be seen as successful in some way to have a leg to stand on for re-election. The whole nation knows that our president is not a genius. The fact that he has turned out to be more effective than many once conjectured is nice, but still not a heartening accolade for the leader of the free world. Bush and his handlers know that the "war" (read: guerilla conflict) in Afghanistan is not helping Bush politically. Because we have been told that anyone anywhere could be in al-Queda, we cannot see a clear end to the engagement in Afghanistan. Despite the clear purpose of disrupting terrorism, there is no clear way for us to determine when it has been rooted out. With an opaque and unwinnable war that will not produce the needed success in his first term, Bush and/or his advisors have turned to Iraq as an easy target that can produce a clear victory and shroud Bush in an aura of success. This victory will be distant enough from his re-election run that the war cannot be said to be engineered for political expediency, but the feather in Bush's hat will also be immediate enough that war-time approval ratings will give him a re-election boost on the ballots.

There has been no consensus on what will happen after Saddam is ousted; we have no exit strategy. Ever since the Vietnam War, American presidents have been very careful about defining under what conditions a war will be concluded, and troops will go home. There is no guarantee that the person who replaces the present head of state will be much better. We have no reason to believe that an Iraq without Saddam is necessarily a better Iraq. We can infer from this that nothing real will be won if we go to war with Iraq. This supports my initial argument that there is really no national interest that will be served by going to war with Iraq.

A variety of evidence indicates the potential war with Iraq will risk lives and waste money and time. This waste is a salient concern because the political context of the war reveals that it will serve a personal, not national interest. Although war-time approval ratings will help Bush's election chances, there is no real reason for Americans to approve of his war. Escalation of military action is entirely unwarranted and it is unclear that we can leave behind a state that will have different intentions from the one that presently exists. Only one thing is certain if we go to war with Iraq: it will definitely serve Bush's interests. Any declaration of war on Iraq is being supported out of political convenience rather than any clearly definable national interest.