It is a small marvel that none of the three figures has ever changed their facial expression since attending college. Donald Rumseld can already be seen machinating a bureaucratic coup. Recently departed Press Secretary Ari Fleischer is already brimming with the arrogance that he would later exude towards inquisitive reporters. And, well, CEO George W. Bush has simply proved more willing to button his shirt. During a recent Rose Garden press conference, a reporter commented to the president that “your policies on the Middle East seem so far to have produced pretty meager results.” President Bush quickly interrupted to clarify: “major or meager?” This might point to the kind of bubble the commander in chief lives in. What has our president been up to?

On Oct. 25, he consecrated the nation’s first Protection from Pornography Week. Three days later, noticeably uncomfortable, he welcomed Muslim clerics from around the world to the White House…in Arabic (to celebrate the iz-LAMB-ik faith). Then, last week, he signed the Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act. Also, at the end of last week, the White House released new cuts from “Barney-Cam,” an Office of Public Affairs feature in which a camera is strapped to the President’s dog Barney as he explores the Lincoln bedroom, the Oval Office, the various diplomatic reception rooms and the Rose Garden (all under the visibly annoyed watch of Secret Service agents).

On Veteran’s Day last Monday, the president, whose shining military record is no doubt a continuing inspiration for all who serve, called Iraq a “generational commitment.” That same day, he attempted a laugh as the manager of a steel factory whose products include beer kegs joked that the firm suffered a loss in demand after Bush quit drinking after becoming a born-again Christian. Clearly, our president has been a busy man who will likely get even busier as election season heats up.

Four seismic forces will soon collide to test the president’s true political acumen. First, the impending trade war with the E.U. over his illegal steel tariffs will directly pit steel consumers against steel producers. If he sides with the E.U., the WTO, and American steel consumers such as General Motors, he wins Michigan and Ohio in 2004. However, if he keeps steel prices artificially high, he wins Pennsylvania. Second, his foreign policy has angered two increasingly important ethnic minorities: the Miami Cubans and the Dearborn Arabs. The former are upset by the lack of any visible results coming out of Cuba and Bush’s Castro tough talk. The latter, who overwhelmingly supported Bush in 2000 because of Lieberman’s candidacy, increasingly see no point in doing the same in 2004 for a man who enacted the Patriot Act and has sheepishly redacted his opposition to the Israeli security fence.

The third force is the economy, or at least the national media’s horserace-like sport casting of the jobless rate. Robbed of their main issue, the Democrats have turned their attention to Iraq and have been put in the unfortunate position of hoping that the situation gets worse before it gets better. Do Americans care more about foreign policy or the economy? Although post-Sept. 11 wisdom tells us that every union worker is acutely aware of daily developments in the Middle East, this newfound interest in the world will no doubt give way to pocketbook concerns if the unemployment rate jumps again.

Lastly, regarding Iraq, no amount of high-level visits or cheery Thomas Friedman columns can shield Americans from the headlines and daily death toll counts that have replaced our earlier jingoism. The wild card is the CIA leak scandal that surrounded Washington a few weeks ago and then departed as mysteriously and swiftly as it had arrived. Will the Justice Department find a scapegoat in time or be forced to whitewash the incident? These four forces will collide in the coming months, leaving Bush to repeat his parrot-like mantra that “we must never forget the lessons of September the 11th.” But even this will ring hollow in the face of bread and butter issues that appeal to real people: for Arabs, their dignity and civil rights; for Cubans, their homeland; for steel workers, their jobs; and for women, their bodies.

What would four more years look like? The look on their faces should tell you all you need to know.